19, the dollar index to a 10 month low against the dollar slightly stabilized, xianyanghouyi gains convergence, intraday refresh 9 month high. Market participants pointed out that in the U. S. dollar "correction" at the same time, the RMB exchange rate is also in the early pessimistic expectations correction process. In view of the internal and external factors, the U.S. dollar or to maintain the weak run, at this stage, the RMB against the U.S. dollar is still volatile upward possible.
intraday refresh 9 months high
recently, the U.S. dollar index continued to rewrite the current round of new lows at the same time, the RMB against the U.S. dollar exchange rate has stood high since the fourth quarter last year.
19, the central parity of RMB against the U.S. dollar rose 160 basis points, set at 6.7451 yuan, a record high since last October 20th. On the previous day, the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar has been the first to rise by 6.75.
on the 18 day, go up in the bank opened the RMB exchange rate against the dollar, 16:30 closing price reported 6.7580, up 119 basis points, night drive 23:30 closed at 6.7478 days, the highest reach 6.7464; the market of Hongkong offshore renminbi dollar exchange rate closed at 6.7498, the highest intraday to 6.7432.
also in 18, the dollar index fell 0.51% days to refresh the 10 month low to 94.477. The fall in the dollar index was seen as the main reason for the strengthening of the yuan against the dollar that day.
19, the Asia Europe trading period, the dollar trend slightly improved, and accordingly, the RMB against the U.S. dollar rally slowed. In the morning in the middle of the onshore RMB price increase stimulus was quickly shot up, to refresh the 9 month high to 6.7464 yuan, then quickly back to the closing price before the near 16:30 consolidation, the closing price of 6.7556 basis points compared with the previous closing price of 24. Yesterday
market in Hongkong offshore RMB exchange rate also appears xianyanghouyi trend, a slight pullback, by Beijing time 19 16:30 at 6.7558, compared with the previous closing price of 56 basis points.
to Beijing at 16:30 on 19 at the exchange rate calculation, this year, the RMB against the U.S. dollar average appreciation of 2.77%, the appreciation of 2.8% yuan on the shore, offshore RMB appreciation of 3.07%. Over the same period, the dollar index fell by 7.4%.
internal and external factors superimposed resonance
, this year, the RMB against the U.S. dollar at least out of the big three appreciation of the market, the performance was significantly better than the market forecast at the beginning of the year. The dollar index, which rose to a ten - year high at the beginning of the year, reversed, and most market participants did not expect it. The weakness of the US dollar is the key reason for the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate this year. Looking back, the exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar will continue to follow the dollar volatility to a large extent, while the dollar stage weakness may not be over. The devaluation of the
dollar is a correction of the super cycles of the past few years". $
in the past few years a thriving market fully reflects the gradual tightening of monetary policy of the Fed is expected to rise, especially in November last year, Trump after the transaction, are included in the implementation of tax cuts, infrastructure and other policies of the Trump administration and the U.S. economic growth and inflation optimistic expectations, the dollar index which hit more than ten years a new high.
but after that, step-by-step economic growth and policy adjustments have failed to provide an additional boost to the dollar's appreciation. The first two fed interest rates this year failed to reverse the weakness of the dollar. Not only that, if the early optimism is not expected to reach, the dollar will also face "expected difference" test. For example, this year, the Trump policy of "landing" schedule has been lower than expected, health care reform bill has repeatedly suffered setback, made $expected poor distress.
should be noted that the cyclical factors of the dollar upward in the marginal contribution has been weakening, while U.S. economic growth fluctuation, Trump trading and political events on the value of the dollar caused by the challenge instead of concern. At the same time, when the global economic recovery is gradually formed the main resonance, differences in the policy orientation of the central bank to gradually eliminate the past few years to support a strong dollar "American economic cycle and policy advantage" of the core factors has changed. In the short term, the dollar weakness may not be over, and this is stable for the RMB exchange rate is good.
for the renminbi exchange rate, the internal support also has the enhancement sign. Recently, China's economic stability to the good, the rise in capital returns, foreign trade surplus remained high, the development of the stock market debt to attract capital inflows, but also help to reduce the risk of RMB exchange rate depreciation.
overall, compared with the beginning of the year, the current market of RMB devaluation fears have decreased significantly, if the dollar continues to remain weak, settlement residents will or will rebound, making the RMB is still upward on the dollar may fluctuate.